Caretta Research has released its latest forecast predicting record revenues for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
A record $8.9 billion in total revenue is expected, said the company, representing a 54 per cent increase over the 2022 tournament. Growth will predominantly be driven by the rise in commercial and matchday revenues, with sports rights also having an effect.
FIFA’s decision to increase the number of teams from 32 to 48 is seen as a key driver for growth, with the number of games rising from 64 in 2022 to 104 this year, providing further opportunities to sell content. Commercial revenue is expected to rise by nearly $300 million, as traditional advertising opportunities are augmented with the inclusion of cooling breaks and an expanded half-time Super Bowl-style show.
Revenue from sports rights sold to media organisations is predicted to grow by $1 billion, a 32 per cent increase on 2022, although its overall share will be reduced, falling below to per cent for the first time since at least 1998, said Caretta. The higher number of matches to be broadcast has diluted the rights value per game, which has decreased by 19 per cent.
Regional time differences present a “significant difficulty for international media,’ said the company. The total volume of broadcast deals has fallen to 443 from 495 in 2022, a decrease of 11 per cent. This highlights FIFA’s shift towards fewer broadcast partnerships with substantially higher individual values. Secondary broadcasters and sub-licensers have stepped away from the market, due to the challenges presented by time zone differences.
A clear regional split has been defined, with the total number of broadcast deals across Latin American and the Caribbean increasing by 18 per cent while in Asia, the number fell by 21 per cent.
Commenting on the findings, Evangelos Vrysellas, research analyst at Caretta Research, said, “Even though FIFA is set for record-breaking total revenue in 2026, the international broadcast landscape is becoming increasingly difficult. Media rights now represent a smaller portion of the overall revenue pie, with the value of each individual match dropping by 19%. The combination of middle-of-the-night kick-offs for major global markets and rising production expenses has discouraged many potential bidders, leading to a 11% drop in the total number of broadcast deals”.
