Carat has published its updated forecasts for worldwide advertising expenditure in 2015 and 2016, with continued optimism through positive global and regional outlook and solid growth in digital and mobile.
Based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat’s latest global advertising expenditure forecasts that global advertising spend will grow by +4.0 per cent in 2015 to $529 billion, a slight decline from the 4.6 per cent predicted in March 2015, and 2016 is predicted to grow by 4.7 per cent, accounting for an additional $25 billion in spend.
Fuelled by the rise of mobile and online video spending trends, Carat’s latest forecasts reconfirm the continued solid growth for digital media, evident through the upsurge in the predicted share of advertising spend in 2015 of 24.3 per cent and 26.5 per cent in 2016. For ten of the markets analysed, including the UK, Ireland, Canada and Australia, digital is now the principle media used based on spend, with the US market predicted to join this list in 2018 when digital advertising spend is forecast to overtake TV advertising by more than $4 billion.
Carat confirms on-going positive momentum in 2015 for most regions although volatility occurs in some individual markets, with western Europe at +2.6 per cent, +4.2 per cent in North America, 4.1 per cent in Asia Pacific and +12.7 per cent in Latin America. Western Europe’s continued positive growth is driven by solid 2015 figures in the UK and Spain of +6.4 per cent and +6.9 per cent respectively, strong enough to withstand the political turmoil in Greece and its revised advertising growth this year of -12 per cent, down from the +8 per cent predicted in March 2015. Despite a slight decline in growth forecasts due to China’s economic downturn, Asia Pacific remains strong in 2015 with an above global spend rate, driven by high-performing India and growing Australia. Carat’s data also reports an encouraging outlook for 2016, with all regions predicted to increase year-on-year spend next year and central and eastern Europe to return to positive growth.
Digital continues to be the only channel warranting double digital growth, predicted at +15.7 per cent in 2015 and +14.3 per cent in 2016. This is driven by the high demand for mobile and online video advertising especially across social media, with 51.2 per cent and 22 per cent year-on-year growth expected this year. Programmatic buying is also experiencing rapid growth at a rate of +20 per cent each year. TV remains resilient with a steady market share in 2015 and is predicted to grow in 2016, as the upcoming Olympic Games and US elections are expected to drive viewership.