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Analyst: Netflix to lose European market share, but remain market leader

HBO Max's growth to be hampered by current licensing deals

Netflix is expected to lose its market share in Western Europe over the next five years but will remain the leading SVoD in the territory in terms of subscriber numbers.

According to figures from Digital TV Research, Netflix is expected to reach 76 million paying subscribers by 2026, up by 20 million compared to 2020.

In comparison, relative new kid on the block Disney Plus is forecast to reach 55 million paying subs in the same scale, an increase of 36 million on 2020.

The analysts suggest HBO Max will see some gain in Western Europe, but not as much as its rivals due to its current licensing deals in Austria, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the UK.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “If HBO Max started across the region’s 18 countries in 2021, we estimate that it would amass 10 million subscribers by 2026. This will not happen, so its total will be 3.3 million across six countries by 2026.”