TV’s golden age may be nearing its end, at least that’s according to Deloitte’s predictions for 2022.
Deloitte Global has taken a look into its crystal ball and found that in the UK in particular, 2022 will be “the final year” that traditional from broadcasters, whether live, time-shifted, or on demand, collectively makes up more than 50 per cent of video viewing on all screens.
The company expects traditional TV broadcasters’ share of viewing hours among UK consumers, which was 73 per cent as recently as 2017, to fall to 53 per cent in 2022 and then to 49 per cent in 2023.
Deloitte said it focused on the UK because the country’s trends are likely to foretell those in dozens of other markets with a similar mix of providers: public service and commercial broadcasters pay-TV companies (satellite, cable, and IPTV); video-on-demand providers (subscription, broadcaster, and ad-funded); social media; and games consoles.
The analysts say they made the prediction due to the symbolism of the UK’s broadcaster content dropping to under half of all viewing in one major market—and the likelihood of this trend being replicated in other similar markets around the world.
Broadcast television’s leading competitor over the past five years has been VoD, whose share in the UK Deloitte predicts will to rise from 7 per cent in 2017 to 27 per cent in 2022, and again to 31 per cent in 2023. Most of this growth has historically been in SVoD, said the analysts; in 2022 and beyond, they expect AVoD to increase its share as new services are launched and existing services to gain momentum.
Meanwhile, globally Deloitte predicts at least 150 million paid subscriptions to SVoD services will be cancelled worldwide, with churn rates of up to 30 per cent per market.
However, more subscriptions will be added than cancelled, the average number of subscriptions per person will rise, and, in markets with the highest churn, many of those cancelling may resubscribe to a service that they had previously left, said the analysts.
Deloitte’s full technology, media and telecommunications predictions are available here.