The TV advertising industry, which has taken a significant hit during the pandemic, is expected to see a solid recovery in 2021, but underlying economic pressures and changes in viewing habits mean it may never fully recover, according to research by Ampere Analysis.
Green shoots seen in Q4 revenue announcements by commercial broadcasters in Western Europe has prompted Ampere to suggest 2021 could see TV advertising revenues grow by 8.5 per cent, reaching €17.3 billion in 2021.
Due to ongoing national lockdown restrictions, Ampere said it expects the Western Europe TV advertising market to see year-on-year declines in Q1 2021 before showing year-on-year growth in the second quarter of the year. The extent of economic recovery will depend on the success of vaccination rollouts and the implementation of any future lockdown restrictions.
As a result of a strong Q4, Ampere has adjusted its market-level TV advertising revenue for FY 2020 in Western Europe from a projected decline of 16 per cent year-on-year (as forecast in Q3) to an average actual year-on-year decline of 15 per cent.
Ampere’s senior analyst Hannah Walsh said: “While Western European economies continued to recover in Q4 2020 and broadcasters achieved better financial results than expected in the quarter, TV advertising revenue in the region is yet to see full recovery from the impact of Covid-19. Overall last year, broadcasters faced double-digit declines in total TV advertising revenue, down -15 per cent on average.
“Ongoing national restrictions through Q1 2021 as well as the discovery of new Covid-19 strains across Europe will continue to have a negative effect on TV advertising revenue. Looking at 2021, Ampere currently expects the region to see year-on-year growth of 8.5 per cent in FY 2021. Ampere does not believe Western Europe will recover to pre-Covid-19 revenue levels over the forecast period,” added Walsh.